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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."